all research

Architecture & Predictive Design · 10 min read

Every facade option, priced four ways: predictive design past generative design

Generative design produced options nobody could evaluate. Predictive design forecasts how each option performs structurally, financially and in embodied carbon before anyone commits.

4 min

Per option, fully appraised

217 kgCO₂e/m²

Spread across options

6.2%

Capital cost variance found

Generative design had a quiet failure that the industry has mostly stopped talking about. It produced two hundred massing options in an afternoon, and then a design team had to pick one, with no basis for choosing beyond geometry and instinct. Producing options was never the constraint. Evaluating them was.

Predictive design inverts the emphasis. Fewer options, each one carrying a forecast of how it behaves once built.

Four questions per option

When an architect tests a facade alternative, four separate teams eventually answer four separate questions about it, usually weeks apart and often after the option has already been committed. What changes with an agentic approach is that all four answers arrive at the moment the option is drawn.

Embodied carbon by facade buildup, modelled for a mid-rise office in Dublin
kgCO₂e per m² facade
Unitised aluminium curtain wall312
Precast concrete with punched openings268
Steel frame with rainscreen194
Timber frame with fibre cement128
Retained facade, new internal lining95

The spread between the top and bottom option is 217 kgCO₂e per square metre. On a fifteen thousand square metre facade area that is a difference of roughly three thousand tonnes, which is the sort of number that decides whether a scheme meets a client sustainability commitment or quietly abandons it at stage four.

Why this needs agents rather than a plugin

Every one of those four analyses already exists as software. Structural packages, thermal modelling tools, carbon calculators and cost planning systems have been around for decades. The reason they are not used at option stage is not capability. It is friction. Each one requires a different model export, a different set of assumptions, a different specialist, and a turnaround measured in days.

An agent absorbs that friction. It reads the option out of the model, prepares the input each analysis needs, runs them, and reconciles the results into a single comparison. The architect keeps designing.

Time to fully appraise one facade option
hours
Model export and cleanup60.297%
Structural check140.696%
Thermal and Part L position110.595%
Embodied carbon assessment160.498%
Cost plan adjustment90.397%
Reconcile and present5180%
conventional agent-assisted
The design does not get made by the agent. The consequences of the design arrive early enough to still be design decisions.

Risk prediction against project history

The second capability is less mature and more interesting. A practice that has delivered two hundred projects holds, in its archive, a record of every place a design ran into trouble. Where clashes concentrated. Which details attracted the most technical queries. Which assemblies drew planning conditions.

That archive is almost never used, because reading it is nobody's job. An agent that scores an evolving design against it produces something no individual can: an early warning that this particular junction, at this particular scale, has caused constructability problems on four previous schemes.

Modelled cost of resolving a design conflict, by stage identified
relative cost, stage 2 = 1
1Stage 23Stage 39Stage 428Stage 574On site160Post practical completion
observed range modelled projection

The escalation curve is the entire commercial argument for predictive design. Nothing about it is new. What is new is having a system that can act on it without needing a person to remember to look.

Starting position

Practices that get value from this start narrow. One building type, one assembly family, one metric. Embodied carbon is usually the right first target, because the calculation is well defined, the data is available, and there is external pressure making the answer commercially relevant rather than academic.

Work with me

Run this model against your own project

I am Kanishk Kapoor, Technical Accounts Manager at AI Institute in Dublin. I build agentic AI systems with built-environment teams across Ireland and the UK. If any figure here looks wrong for your business, that is the useful conversation. Send me your assumptions and I will re-run it.

Continue reading